[Elections 2016]
A new Washington Post/Univision poll of Latino voters show that if, as expected, GOP leadership fails to stop the momentum of Donald Trump’s nomination run, Republicans will suffer a staggering loss among Latinos in the general election.
Here are some of the poll’s key findings:
80% have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, with 72% saying very unfavorable and 9% saying somewhat unfavorable. Only 16% have a favorable opinion, with 8% saying they have very favorable opinion.
This -64 favorability/unfavorability gap (16/80) is far greater than Rubio’s +8 (45/37), Kasich’s +6 (27/21), and Cruz’s -5 (39/44).
By comparison, both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders enjoy a +37 favorability rating with Latino voters.
82% of Latino voters want the next president to support a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.
74% say Trump’s views on immigration are offensive.
In a head-to-head matchup with Hillary Clinton, Trump loses by a margin of 73%-16%.*
In a head-to-head matchup with Bernie Sanders, Trump loses by a margin of 72%-16%.*
*By comparison, in 2004 George W. Bush won an estimated 40% of the Latino vote; in 2008 John McCain won 31% of the Latino vote; and in 2012 Mitt Romney won between 23% (according to Latino Decisions election eve polling) and 27% (according to media-sponsored exit polls) of the Latino vote.
In addition to the poll, a new study suggests the demographic composition of the electorate will favor the Democratic nominee. Thereport was released by an ideologically diverse group of think tanks – the Center for American Progress, Brookings Institution and the American Enterprise Institute – and shows demographic changes along racial, gender, and age lines position the Democratic party to win the Electoral College vote in four out of five possible scenarios. The report concludes that the only scenario in which Republicans would have a winning margin—a 5 point surge in every state among white voters of every age – would most likely be offset by Donald Trump’s collapse among Latino and immigrant voters.
As immigration reform champion Rep. Luis Gutierrez points out in a new piece in the Boston Globe, Republican intolerance toward immigrants and obstruction on immigration reform – coupled with the rise of Donald Trump as the party standard bearer – is “angering a growing—and very potent—portion of the electorate,” guaranteeing not only that Republicans will not be competitive in 2016, but that “Democrats will occupy the White House for the foreseeable future, perhaps the next generation.”
“It seems that Trump’s bigotry is more powerful than his bluster,” added Frank Sharry, Executive Director of America’s Voice. “His lame claim that ‘the Hispanics love me’ is thoroughly overwhelmed by his offensive immigration views and unpopularity. Given the public opinion and demographic lay of the land awaiting the presumptive GOP nominee in the general election, it’s predictable who will turn out to be the biggest loser.”
