Astronomers have raised concerns about a giant asteroid called 2024 YR4. This asteroid is currently moving toward Earth and has a chance of hitting our planet in 2032. Also, NASA’s Centre for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) has calculated the odds. These are a direct hit of about 2.3%. This implies that there is a one-in-43 chance that it could strike Earth. Continue reading to learn more about the asteroid hitting Earth in 2032.
Recent Developments
On January 28, 2025, NASA announced the updated odds of asteroid 2024 YR4. Just a week prior, the European Space Agency (ESA) reported a 1.3% chance of the asteroid hitting Earth. This is on December 22, 2032. This date marks the asteroid’s closest approach to our planet. Moreover, the ESA noted that there was almost a 99% chance that it would pass by without any incidents.
The asteroid is about 300 feet (90 meters) wide. Its size is similar to the Tunguska asteroid. It exploded over Siberia in 1908. Also, this event flattened around 830 square miles. This is 2150 square kilometers of forest. Also, 2024 YR4 is now a top concern for astronomers. However, they have advised people not to panic.
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Understanding the Risk
The asteroid 2024 YR4 has a Torino Impact Hazard Scale rating of three. This scale runs from 0 (no risk) to 10 (certain collision). A grade of three implies a close approach that warrants astronomers’ attention.
However, fluctuations in impact probabilities are also common. The YouTube video titled “How asteroids go from threat to no sweat” elucidated the likelihood of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth dropping. This is as more data becomes available. Moreover, NASA’s planetary defense office supports this view. Molly Wasser has stated that several asteroids have shown higher dangers. This is slowly being moved to a zero-risk category when fresh data comes in.
Expert Opinion
Colin Snodgrass is a professor at the University of Edinburgh. He also gave his thoughts on the matter. He believes that 2024 YR4 will most likely pass by harmlessly. He emphasized the need for continued observation to confirm this. Moreover, the longer astronomers track the asteroid, the more accurate the predictions will be.
Past experiences with similar asteroids reinforce this message. For instance, the asteroid 99942 Apophis was once considered a potential threat. Discovered in 2004, it was larger than the Eiffel Tower. Moreover, it had a Torino rating of four. However, further studies showed that it posed no threat to Earth for at least 100 years.
The Dart Mission Success
NASA’s Dart Mission in 2022 gives us hope. This mission successfully crashed a spacecraft into an asteroid. It was the size of a football stadium. Moreover, it was changing its trajectory. If 2024 YR4 were to pose a threat, a similar mission could potentially be effective.
Furthermore, NASA has already gathered some data on 2024 YR4. The asteroid travels in an oval orbit around the sun. 2024 YR4 is currently at the top due to its potential risk. This is according to NASA’s automated Sentry risk list.
Current Predictions
As of now, the impact probability for 2024 YR4 keeps changing. On a recent Wednesday, NASA estimated the chance of impact. It was about one in 53, or 1.9%. It was 1.6% the day before. On Thursday, the odds increased to one in 44, or 2.3%. Also, the ESA reported similar numbers. They noted that the impact probability rises initially before quickly dropping to zero. This was after the initial observations.
The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) issued its first-ever Potential Asteroid Impact Notification. This was after 2024 YR4 reached a one percent impact probability. The IAWN manager, Tim Spahr mentioned that hitting the one percent threshold is rare.
Potential Impact Zone
If 2024 YR4 were to hit the Earth, it would likely land in a risk corridor. This corridor stretches across the eastern Pacific Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia. Moreover, the impact could cause damage in an area extending 50 kilometers from the impact site.
The asteroid came closest to Earth on Christmas Day. It was passing within 800,000 kilometers. This distance is roughly twice the distance from Earth to the moon. It was discovered just two days after this close encounter.
Monitoring the Asteroid
NASA and the European Space Agency will continue to monitor 2024 YR4. As the asteroid moves closer, astronomers will gather more detailed observations. They aim to learn more about its size, composition, and structure. Currently, experts believe the chances of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth are low. Most likely, it will pass by safely in 2032. Moissl, an expert in the field, reassured the public. He stated that we are not in a direct threat. Moreover, we are not at an immediate risk. Also, it is not an alert or a crisis situation.
Future Observations
The asteroid is estimated to be between 40 to 100 meters across. Also, it travels at a speed about 15 times faster than a high-velocity bullet. It is currently moving away from Earth. However, it will return in 2028. If it does impact Earth, the estimated date remains December 22, 2032. As new analysis comes in, the probability of impact will continue to change. Astronomers will keep updating their assessments based on new data.
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Conclusion
The asteroid 2024 YR4 poses some risk so far. However, the chances of it hitting Earth are low. Astronomers will continue to monitor it closely. Moreover, they will gather data to refine their predictions. The success of past missions, like NASA’s Dart, shows that we have the technology to deal with potential threats. For now, there is no need for alarm.
