Allan Lichtman is an American historian and political analyst. He is known for his prediction of the US presidential election. Recently, he predicted for the US presidential election in 2024 that Kamala Harris would defect to Donald Trump and get control of the white house. Since 1984, Allan Lichtman has been predicting and his 9 out of 10 predictions were right.
Allan Lichtman’s prediction model is based on a set of 13 keys. His prediction is not based on the polling data or public sentiment. He used his historical pattern and scientific criteria to determine the success of presidential candidates.
Who is Allan Lichtman?
Allan Lichtman was born on March 17, 1943. Lichtman is a Professor of History at the American University in Washington, D. C. He completed his Ph. D. from Harvard University and written many books on American history and politics. That is why he has so much knowledge of history and politics which makes him best at predicting politics. His one of the best-selling books is “The Keys to the White House” in which he mentions proprietary approaches to prognostications about the elections. He uses this same method to make him a popular figure in the political arena and people give him the title of the ‘Nostradamus of presidential elections’.
- Birthplace: Allan Lichtman was born in Brownsville, Brooklyn, New York.
- Education: Lichtman completed his B.A. from Brandeis University and a Ph.D. in history from Harvard University
- Wife: Lichtman is married to Karen Strier who is an anthropologist and primatologist. She is also a popular figure in the USA.
- Children: There are no details about his children. He did not make it public.
- Hobbies and Interests: Lichtman is passionate about running and has participated in numerous marathons.
- Academic Recognition: Lichtman is highly respected in the political area. He received various academic awards in political science and history.
- Media Presence: He gets media importance all the time. He is also featured in The New York Times and The Washington Post.
- Notable Publications: “The Keys to the White House” and “The Case for Impeachment.
The Keys to the White House
As said, Lichtman has a specific prediction model, in which 13 keys are actually true/false statements, which create a general overview of the politics preceding an election.
These keys indicate the state of the economy, the incumbent’s popularity, social unrest, and a third-party candidate. When the number of keys is six or above and all the keys are false, the incumbent party is anticipated to lose the elections. On the other hand, if there are five or fewer keys that are False, it is expected that the incumbent party will win.
The keys are as follows:
Party Mandate: This is a clear indication that, following the last election, the incumbent party compounded its House of Representatives seat count.
- Contest: In the case of the incumbent party, there is no credible challenger to give him/her a run for his/her nomination.
- Incumbency: Some candidates are seeking a chance to retain their rights to continue holding the presidency such as the incumbent president.
- Third-Party: The third-party challenge is insignificant.
- Economy: In the pre-election period the economy was not in recession.
- Unemployment: Noteworthy, the unemployment rate is not increasing.
- Social Unrest: The social turmoil in the society does not go on continuously during the campaign.
- Scandal: The current cabinet is free from serious scandal as it was in the past under the previous governments.
- Foreign Policy: This particular policy strategy has resulted in a significant foreign policy gain for the incumbent administration.
- Charisma: The challenger is not charismatic, This suggests that the challenger cannot sway the viewer’s votes or persuade them to switch from the preferred option or side.
- Voter Turnout: The number of people who turn out to vote for the incumbent party is the same or much higher than the number that voted in the previous election.
- Incumbent’s Popularity: The job total approval rating of the incumbent is more than half or greater than 50%.
- Major Events: As for election-related stories, there are no significant events that bring significant change in the voting process.
