By AP News
Photos: YouTube Screenshots
Two back-to-back strikes in Beirut and Tehran, both attributed to Israel and targeting high-ranking figures in Hamas and Hezbollah, have left Hezbollah and Iran in a quandary. Calibrating that response to restore deterrence without sparking a more damaging escalation may be the most delicate balancing act in nearly a year of teetering on the brink of a regional war. Read more.
Why this matters:
Analysts said both Hezbollah and Iran will feel compelled to retaliate, but their calculations differ. Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center who researches Hezbollah, said in order to reestablish deterrence after Tuesday’s strike, “Hezbollah would need to respond beyond its now-limited geographical scope of operations. They need to strike deeper in Israeli territories, and this brings with it great risks.”
For Iran, the situation is more complicated. The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh took place on Iranian soil, embarrassing Tehran and making clear that Israel can easily hit targets there. And while some analysts believe that will be mitigated by the fact the target was not an Iranian figure, Iranian officials have vowed a harsh response.
RELATED COVERAGE ➤
A look at Israel’s long history of targeted killings
Iran’s supreme leader prays over the coffin of Hamas leader Haniyeh, whose killing risks a wider war
The war in Gaza might complicate Haniyeh’s replacement. Here are the possible contenders
