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The prevalence of type 2 diabetes in sub-Saharan Africa, according to a new study, which suggested the disease is rising at a much faster rate than predicted.

Drawing on data from more than 10,000 participants tracked between 2013 and 2022, researchers found the prevalence of type 2 diabetes nearly doubled in middle-aged people in Burkina Faso, Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa over a period of six years. South Africa had the “highest incidence of the disease,” followed by countries in East Africa and West Africa, said Raylton Chikwati, a co-author of the paper published in The Lancet.

Higher rates of the disease were found among urban communities and men. Earlier estimates said around 6% of sub-Saharan Africa would have diabetes by 2045 — about 60 million people — a figure the researchers now believe to be a gross underestimate. “The problem is urgent and is not in the distant future,” Chikwati said.