By Roger House
Photos: YouTube Screenshots
The surge of angry voters at town halls around the country reveals the aging of the Republican constituency. There is a deep sense of existential desperation of the GOP base that fears the rise of a young Black and brown population and is using its short-term voting advantage to lock in privileges of white supremacy. That is part of the strategy around the anti-DEI movement.
The reality, however, is the transformation of America to a racially pluralistic society. The shift is irreversible and needs to be skillfully managed. According to the Brookings Institution, since 2019 white youths have comprised less than half of the population under the age of 15. Today, the cohort is in their twenties and in the vanguard of an increasingly diverse society.
The reality of white population shrinkage will inevitably force politicians and institutions to rethink the DEI backlash and the Elon Musk led effort to slash federal insurance programs. Simply put, there are not enough white people in prime age to address the demands of the economy.
The town halls spotlight an aging white population dependent on Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, which helps to pay for nursing homes. In addition, the population is shrinking as a political and economic force and will come to rely on the services and tax support of non-white workers. It is a reality that the mainstream press is often unwilling to explore because of the denial of white editors running the opinion sections.
As well, companies, institutions, and universities will be dependent on the labor, skills, and purchasing power of non-white consumers and students or face contraction. The “demographic cliff” is an existential problem that colleges across New England and the country are grappling with today, even with a short-term uptick in freshman year enrollments. It portends that institutional leaders need to recruit and develop a diverse workforce irrespective of the backward looking politics of the Trump administration and its supporters.
The administration represents the last gasp of an old vision of white male social dominance. The supporters cling to the misperception even as the men touted by the administration as the epitome of “merit” display gross incompetence on a daily basis. Whether it is the disclosure of secret war plans in a group chat, or the firing and rehiring of nuclear inspectors, among other head-scratching examples of incompetence.
As well, the aging GOP base sees an existential threat in the combined trend of a shrinking population of young whites and the rise of a largely white gay culture. It is why MAGA lashes out at women’s rights, abortion, and LGBTQ culture. Unfortunately, a lot of immigrants from traditional Hispanic and Asian cultures have been supportive of the MAGA viewpoint. Yet, too many institutions are succumbing to the old vision rather than embrace the change.
The demographic decline of the white population was captured in the 2020 Census: about 192 million Americans were counted as “white alone” and account for about 58 percent of the national population. The “common” age of this group was a startling 58 years, according to the PEW Research Center, compared to 39 years for the nation. The “common age” refers to the most prevalent age in the group and is revealed at the Republican town halls.
Moreover, the Census revealed that white people had declined by about 3 percent — about 5 million or so — between 2010 and 2020. Chief among the reasons was the mortality of the Greatest Generation and the Baby Boomers. Simultaneously, younger whites are having fewer children due to priorities such as wealth preservation, careers, lifestyle choices, child care costs, school loans, and lack of affordable housing, among others.
Still another reason is the new flexibility for people to self-identify as “white in combination” on the Census. This emerging segment is primarily those of biracial or Hispanic ethnic background and grew modestly. However, the definition of whiteness in combination runs counter to U.S. cultural history of white determination. It has traditionally viewed such mixtures as having a diminishing effect on the “purity of the race,” even though the concept of race is more a social than biological reality.
In comparison to the white population, there has been dynamic growth in the non-white populations of the country. The Hispanic population is 67 million strong through native childbirth and immigration with a common age of 11 years. The Asian population accounts for 20 million people with a common age of 29 years and the highest growth rate through immigration. The Black population is 48 million with a common age of 27 years and steady growth through native childbirth and immigration.
Such demographic facts underscore the crucial nature of DEI policies for inclusive classroom, workplace, and political practices. Young people will not learn to work collaboratively of their own accord and will reject an identity foisted on them by a backward-looking white political leadership.
And it highlights the importance of maintaining well-funded federal insurance programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, the primary beneficiaries of which will be the aging white population. Absent this support many middle-aged white families will strain to care for both aging parents and children.
In closing, it is foolhardy for governments, companies, and universities to abandon the inclusive policies that help to develop the diverse workforce and citizenry. The demographic facts foreshadow a short life cycle for the politics of resentment of the Trump era.
Roger House is professor emeritus of American Studies at Emerson College and the author of “Blue Smoke: The Recorded Journey of Big Bill Broonzy” and “South End Shout: Boston’s Forgotten Music Scene in the Jazz Age.” His forthcoming book is “Five Hundred Years of Black Self-Governance: A Call to Conscience.”
