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In the following article, The Lincoln Project group analyzes the facts versus the myths regarding the “dark money funded organization” called No Labels.
No Labels is a secretive DC-based, dark money funded organization attempting to put a third party candidate on the presidential ballot in 2024. Despite their best efforts to obscure their real intentions, their actions will only support Donald Trump’s reelection next year. In this document, and those to come, we will expose No Labels’ falsehoods and provide truth in their place.
Myth:
A No Labels’ “Unity Ticket” has a viable path to 286 electoral votes.
Fact:
There is zero chance a third-party ticket can win the Presidency; It has never before happened in American history. They have no chance to score 33% of the Electoral College, never-mind 50%.
In order to pull off what they claim is their “plan”, No Labels would need to achieve the impossible: win all battleground states and a number of strong Biden states – including his home state of Delaware. Most states No Labels would hope to win would only be attainable by fracturing Biden’s vote share in the state. Among Democrats, Joe Biden maintains a 77% approval rating which makes winning democratic states highly implausible.
The election polling site FiveThirtyEight says: “The electorate is composed of many moderates and a smaller group of independents who don’t lean toward either party. But the share of the electorate where these traits overlap is actually small… only about 5 percent of voters were both independent and moderate.” Translation: There aren’t enough truly independent voters who will vote for No Labels so they can win.
A No Labels victory would be the unlikeliest victory in American history. It would only happen by sparking a political revolution never before seen. Do Joe Manchin or Larry Hogan seem like the inspirational figures capable of pulling this off?
And No Labels knows this, which is why Chief Strategist Ryan Clancy has spoken about the No Labels plan to utilize “faithless electors” and undermine the 2024 Presidential Election within the Electoral College system by bargaining any electoral votes they may receive.
Myth:
No Labels polling proves that a “commonsense majority” of Americans will vote for their ticket.
Fact:
Every single poll that asks voters about a generic third party has them losing – including their own. “The group’s polling from December 2022, which was shared Sunday with The Washington Post, found that the unnamed “moderate independent” candidate was supported by 20 percent of registered voters, compared with 28 percent for Biden and 33 for Trump.”
No Labels has refused to publicly release any polling information that supports their electoral viability or a path to 270+ electoral votes. Requests for crosstabs, polling methodology, margins of error and state polling have been denied.
Given that No Labels’ CEO Nancy Jacobson hired her husband, Mark Penn, to conduct the group’s polling, we should expect their results to be all narrative and no data. Penn’s firm, HarrisX, has made over $400,000 creating polls for No Labels – according to their 2021 tax filing. Those who have worked for Mark Penn have repeatedly called out his refusal to release any polling details and warned against trusting anything HarrisX releases as accurate.
Myth:
No Labels will have a robust, transparent, and open nominating process.
Fact:
There will be no “real” nominating process or primary. No Labels has been intentionally vague, and what little they have revealed on such an important process indicates delegates will be asked to vote on a candidate that is decided on by the No Labels nominating committee in conjunction with staff wishes. The nominating committee itself will be hand-selected by No Labels’ staff.
By design, there’s no opportunity for supporters to say who should be the nominee. This is the very definition of a smoke-filled back room with high dollar donors and party insiders making decisions.
Myth:
No Labels is a national grassroots movement of common sense Americans sick of both political parties.
Fact:
No Labels is funded by a collection of corporate executives and the same Republican mega-donors who have bankrolled Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis and other MAGA extremists. The organization has hired Republican finance staff to court GOP donors. While they claim they are interested in bringing people together, they are willing to risk returning Donald Trump, the most divisive president in our history, to the White House.
This entire operation is a revenge fantasy by Nancy Jacobson and Mark Penn after being thrown out of Democratic circles. They are only interested in blowing up Democrat’s chances in the fall, and Republicans are more than willing to bankroll the operation.
The Lincoln Project is a leading pro-democracy organization in the United States — dedicated to the preservation, protection, and defense of democracy. To learn more about The Lincoln Project, go to lincolnproject.us.
